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Preferences could be crucial as field widens

Preferences could play a key role when votes are counted on election night as the ballot paper lengthens in the Monash electorate.
At least nine candidates are expected to be listed when nominations close on Thursday - including six party representatives and three independents.
Confirmed endorsed party candidates include the ALP's Tully Fletcher, Family First's Geoff Dethlefs, The Greens' Terrence Steele, Liberal candidate Mary Aldred, Kuljeet Kaur Robinson for Pauline Hanson's One Nation and Trumpet of Patriots candidate Alex Wehbe.
Sitting member Russell Broadbent will stand as an independent alongside independent candidates Deb Leonard and Robert Durkacz.
Nominations close at noon on Thursday with the declaration of nominations at noon on Friday.
Eight candidates contested Monash at the 2022 election with Ms Leonard attracting the third highest primary votes with 10,372 votes, just short of 11 per cent, in her first bid for election.
Analysis conducted for her in this election has indicated that a win in Monash, after preferences are distributed, could be possible if she can receive an extra 8000 primary votes over what was achieved in 2022.
But, Ms Leonard has not taken up an offer to swap preferences with fellow independent Mr Broadbent.
While he initially indicated his willingness to place Ms Leonard second on his how to vote card provided she did the same, Mr Broadbent told the Gazette the offer no longer stood.
"It's no longer accurate because Deb didn't take that offer up," Mr Broadbent said.
Ms Leonard said it was "really important for voters to choose their preferences for themselves."
"I am asking people to put a one next to me, and then choose who they want to give two, three, four, five. I'm very hopeful that I'll get enough number one votes that I'll get ahead."
Ms Leonard indicated she would issue a how to vote card, but was not sure yet how it would be set out.
Mr Broadbent is contesting the election for the first time without party support, and is seeking his eighth consecutive term as Member for Monash.
Ms Aldred was overwhelmingly endorsed by Liberal Party delegates in a three-way battle in 2023 when she received 161 votes compared to Mr Broadbent and Nathan Hersey receiving just 16 votes each.
Monash has predominantly been held by Liberal members, with the exception of an ALP dominance between 1980 and 1990 when Barry Cunningham was the elected member and again for a two term period when the ALP's Christian Zahra held the seat between 1998 and 2004.
Over the past two elections, the Liberal-held seat's margin has reduced from 6.8 per cent to 2.9 per cent.
At the 2022 election, Mr Broadbent's primary vote slipped eight per cent to 37.79 per cent, while the ALP's Jessica O'Donnell's primary vote dropped four per cent to 25.6 per cent. The Greens achieved a two per cent swing in Monash at the last election.

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